How to see the economic growth rate of the third quarter? Experts say this
People’s Network Beijing October 20 (Fang Solution) According to the data released on the 18th of the National Bureau of Statistics, my country’s total domestic production value of 823.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters, in the quarter, the first quarter increased in a year-on-year increase in two years; The second quarter increased in year-on-year, two years an average growth%; the third quarter increased in year-on-year growth, two years average growth%. From the data released, the economic growth in the third quarter fell significantly. Some netizens have been questioned. Is this show that my country’s economic growth is weakened? To this end, the People’s Network "Strong Observation" column interviewed relevant experts. In the third quarter, it is not kinens that "this is not single, which is a Chinese economy falling from the second quarter to the third quarter, but the whole world economic development has slowly falls.
"Yao Jingyuan, special researcher at the State Council, Recently, the latest" World Economic Outlook "released by IMF (International Monetary Fund) will adjust this year’s world economic growth to 6% from the last forecast to%. Yao Jingyuan believes that the third quarter The growth rate of major economic indicators growth is caused by multiple factors.
From the international perspective, the economic development speed of the world is in the process of slow return, the impact of the price of commodity prices in the international market will be conducted through imported to domestic; from domestic perspective, distributed epidemic and natural disasters. There is a certain impact on the development of the national economy. China’s economy still maintains better endogenous motivation, which is capable of being stable. Yao Jingyuan takes the problem of coal shortage as an example. At present, Inner Mongolia is fully promoting the release of coal production capacity, and coal enterprises affected by floods in Shanxi also have sequential completion. In addition, the import of coal imports is increased, and trade in coal in China is being promoted, and the problem of shortage of coal is gradually solving.
The overall situation of the Chinese economy maintains a recovery "From the third quarter of this year, the Chinese economy has maintained the recovery situation." Zhang Liqun, researcher of the Macroeconomics Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, said that on the basis of implementing V-type reverse last year, This year’s Chinese economy has achieved further development. Especially in the context of various unstable, uncertain factors have increased significantly, such growth has highlighted the powerful toughness of China, as well as abundant development kinetic energy. "According to the economics principle, grasp the overall economic situation of a country is to grasp the four indicators of economic growth, employment, price and international payments.
"Yao Jingyuan said that the four major indicators in the third quarter show that the Chinese economy is currently in a good recovery state.
Especially in the employment, 10.45 million new employment in the first three quarters, achieving 95% of the annual goals, and the unemployment rate mean of urban investigation is%, lower than the expected goal of the annual%, in the current graduates Under, this employment data is not easy. "my country’s import and export still maintains a good situation, even super expensive growth." Zhang Liqun said that in the world, the integrity of China’s manufacturing industry is complete, large, and under the sustained impact of the epidemic, it is a global supply chain stability. Important source.
At the same time, as a country in which a significant effectiveness in the epidemic prevention and control, China’s consumer market is gradually recurring, and it should be hot, further consuming the basic conditions of employment, income and other promotion. "From the change of national residents’ consumption prices (CPI), we guarantee the basis of fundamental people’s livelihood, especially the supply of food and agricultural products is solid." Zhang Liqun believes that data shows that the national resident consumption price increase in the first three quarters The expected goal of less than 3%, the consumption price is mild.
From the relationship between supply and demand, it is clear that the supply of various types of goods is sufficient. Some of the short plates have been significantly improved.
Such a gentle gains have created a good adjustment space for fiscal policies and monetary policies.
In contrast, the current industrial producer is exported to the factory price (PPI), which requires special attention to the high increase of industrial producers’ ex-factory price (PPI) to the national resident consumption price (CPI), this is a big The difficulty faced by the product supply chain began to signal the basic people’s livelihood. What should I do in the fourth quarter? "Now the price of industrial producers (PPI) is mainly concentrated in upstream industries, such as coal, oil, natural gas, non-ferrous metals, black metals, etc. The raw materials of upstream commodities have increased high, leading to enterprise prices, downstream processing enterprises I was forced to accept the price of the upstream gains too fast. "Yao Jingyuan said that in order to solve the problem of high price (PPI) of industrial producers, it is necessary to protect the stability as a macro policy that is critical in the fourth quarter. Downstream processing companies provide practical and effective measures to help them overcome the difficulties faced. "We need to further explore the high-efficiency path to inspire the potential of large-scale domestic markets to expand domestic demand." Zhang Liqun said that due to the end of July this year, the total amount of my country’s market has increased to billion households, such a large-scale group not only needs to improve business environment Policy support, such as tax cut, while also requires macroeconomic policy inverse cycle to effectively increase market demand, one of them is one of them, is to do well in infrastructure investment construction and perfect public service, and achieve "from" There is a good development. According to data, the first three quarters, infrastructure investment year-on-year increases, two years average growth rate is%, still has a more considerable lifting space.
"In the main economies of the world, the growth of China’s economy this year is expected to continue.
"Yao Jingyuan said that China’s economy will still maintain health, stable growth, and it is expected that the annual growth can reach around 8%.
(Editor: Fang Shuqin, He Yingchun) Share more people to see.